The 2nd year, 1 million dollars Rebellious stakes is the third stop on the route from Oaklawn Park to the 2022 Kentucky Derby. A field of 11 will run 1 1/16 miles, and the top four, if eligible, will earn a 50-20-10-5 Derby qualifying point share.
Bob Baffert has won the Rebel eight times, all since 2010, including the last two editions with Nadal in 2020 and Concert Tour last year. Among those rebel winners for Baffert was a Kentucky Derby winner, 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah.
This year, Baffert will be represented by Newgrange, who should be a heavy favorite based on his unbeaten record in three starts. As Baffert is currently banned from running at Churchill Downs, Newgrange will again not be eligible to earn qualifying points for the Run for the Roses.
Here’s a full analysis of the Rebel, listing the odds provided by horse racing nation, stallions, trainers, jockeys, career records and earnings. The Rebel is licensed as an 11 of 12 race with a scheduled start time of 6:52 p.m. EST.
1. Kavod (20-1 – Leah – Chris Hartman / Francisco Arrieta – 11: 3-1-0 – $293,000) Kavod leads this field in racing experience with 11 starts, nine at 2s and two this year. He won early on his April debut at Belmont Park and finished second at Tremont in his next race. After four unsuccessful starts in graded stakes, Kavod won a $50,000 claiming race at Churchill Downs in November and was taken away by Hartman. He came right back to win Advent at Oaklawn, a six furlong stake for his new coach. In two starts this year at the Kentucky Derby track, he finished fourth in Smarty Jones and Southwest (G3) after being part of the early pace of both. To throw.
2. Newgrange (5-2 – Violence – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 3: 3-0-0 – $552,000) Newgrange brings a 3-on-3 record to the Rebel as Baffert attempts to win the race again. After a first score at Del Mar in November, Newgrange has won two Kentucky Derby preps, despite his trainer currently being banned from racing at Churchill Downs. The son of Violence would have had 20 Derby points on his wins in the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita and the Southwest at Oaklawn. In the southwest, he went on a stalking trip to beat up several other 3-year-olds who are in the Rebel. Newgrange was an additional $20,000 nomination to the Rebel. The likely winner.
3. Cairama (20-1 – Prince of Cairo –Steve Asmussen / Geovanni Franco – 4: 1-0-1 – $71,125) Cairama earned his first career start in September at Belmont with a head-on sprint effort. From there he finished fifth in Nashua (G3), third in Advent and sixth in Smarty Jones. Aside from his first race, Cairama had a poor escape from the gate, causing him to have too much ground to catch a quality field. To throw.
4. An Ojo (15-1 – Laoban –Ricky Courville / Ramón Vasquez – 5: 1-2-0 – $176,321) This New York student started his career at Keeneland in October, but moved to Delta Downs to beat his young daughter, then finished fourth in a stakes race. He came north to run second in a lucrative New York Stallion Series race, beaten by just a neckline over seven furlongs. Then in the nine-stage Withers (G3), he rallied from last to secure the spot behind talented runner Chad Brown Early Voting. live far away.
5. texas red hot (20-1 – Texas Red –Randy Morse / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 2-1-0 – $133,670) Texas Red Hot finished second in its debut at Churchill in June, then earned its first breaker at Ellis Park the following month. He finished fourth in the Ellis Park Juvenile. He earned allowance with a late one-mile rally at Churchill but was never a factor in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The Rebel is a tough place for Texas Red Hot to make its first start of the year. To throw.
6. Stellar Faucet (12-1- carpet –Steve Asmussen /Christian Torres – 4: 1-0-1 – $71,292) Stellar Tap beat more than five lengths in a special seven-stadium first shot put at Saratoga. He stretched over two corners in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill, finishing fifth, then in the Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, where he picked up the pace and then passed out. Stellar Tap finished third in a Fair Grounds allocation in its first start of 2022. I don’t know why to expect better results in this high-stakes race. To throw.
7. Ben Diesel (10-1 – will support –Dallas Stewart / Jon Court – 4: 1-0-1 – $164,110) Ben Diesel will continue on the Kentucky Derby track with his third start in the Oaklawn Park prep races. Most recently he finished third in the South West (G3), which was a big improvement on his seventh in the Smarty Jones. He was well bet in both races, but is likely to come with higher odds in the Rebel. The run from Stewart’s barn makes it hard to know what to expect from this son of rebel winner Will Take Charge. Use below.
8. hunting time (7-2 – Not this time –Steve Asmussen / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 2-2-0 – $179,460) Of the three horses entered in the Rebel de la Grange Asmussen, Chasing Time seems to be the best competitor. It took him three starts to figure things out as he smashed his maiden at Churchill in November with a seven-yard closing move. Chasing Time was a heavily bet favorite in all five starts, including a pair of allowance runs in its most recent two races. He won by almost eight lengths as he covered a mile at Oaklawn after pressing the pace. Use below.
9. barber’s road (6-1 – race day –John Ortiz / Reylu Gutierrez – 6: 2-3-0 – $300,720) Barber Road has racked up three consecutive second-place finishes, the two most recent being preparations for the Derby at Oaklawn Park. He got eight qualifying points this year when he ran off the pace in the Smarty Jones and then the Southwest (G3). He will again face several horses from those races in the Rebel, including the winners of Dash Attack and Newgrange. Use below.
ten. ethereal road (8-1 – quality road –Wayne Lukas / Luis Contreras – 4: 1-0-1 – $63,545) Hall of Fame coach Lukas is back in search of his third Rebel win after winning most recently in 2013 with Will Take Charge. Ethereal Road beat his freshman year at Oaklawn last month in his fourth career start with a last-to-first rally at 19-1 odds. He tends to walk out of the gate slowly, which won’t help his chances in this Grade 2. To throw.
11. fast attack (10-1 – Munnings – Kenny McPeek /David Cohen – 3: 2-0-0 – $227,940) Dash Attack started their career with a pair of wins at Oaklawn. In December it was a first score over a mile, then the following month he won the Smarty Jones on a sloppy track when he blew through the pitch with a late rally to win by two lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek took him back in four weeks to the South West, where he ran on a dry, fast track for the first time and finished fifth. Connections might be hoping for rain in Oaklawn on Saturday. Winning contestant.
Summary: Newgrange is the likeliest of the Rebel winners as Baffert seeks another big payday in the $1 million purse. Is there a way to bet on the Rebel when Newgrange should be a favorite with short odds by the time the doors open?
There might be some value in the exacta pool if you play Newgrange with horses with higher odds in that area of 11. An Ojo and Dash Attack do the trick as live long shots, while Ben Diesel, Barber Road and Chasing Time are more obvious. exact possibilities.