Analysis: For some Texas politicians, a bad time for bad news

_{Editor’s Note: If you would like to receive an email notification each time we publish Ross Ramsey’s column, click here.}

_{If you want to listen to the chronicle, click on the play button below.}

A political campaign can survive FBI raids, indictments from advisers, and even indictments from public officials themselves, but timing is everything.

News from the past week includes the indictment of Todd Smith, a top adviser and longtime consultant to Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican. Smith is accused of soliciting bribes for hemp licenses from Miller’s agency.

In Laredo, the FBI raided the home of U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar, a Democrat, in an unexplained investigation. Cuellar said he would cooperate.

Regardless of how these cases come out, the timing is dire for these incumbents. Both Miller and Cuellar have ambitious primary opponents eager to capitalize on their issues.

These two join another incumbent facing challengers in March, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose legal troubles include a long-standing securities fraud indictment, whistleblower-spurred investigations and the threat of a Texas prosecutor to prosecute him if he does not comply. with open information laws by releasing recordings of his communications from the days around the Jan. 6, 2021, uprising in Washington, D.C. Friday, the attorney general said he would not comply.

Texans begin early voting in this year’s primaries on Valentine’s Day, and March 1 is Election Day.

This short schedule puts candidates like Miller, Cuellar and Paxton in trouble.

In the Attorney General’s case, it’s the main reason the Republican intra-party feud includes U.S. Representative Louie Gohmert of Tyler, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and Texas Land Commissioner George P Bush. What is this race? Whatever Holder wants to discuss is about Paxton himself, who was indicted in 2015 for offering to sell stock without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. This case has still not been judged. In 2020, a group of senior Paxton aides accused him of using his office for the personal benefit of a campaign donor, leading to a federal investigation and pending civil lawsuits.

In Miller’s re-election bid, rumors of the investigations that led to his aide’s indictment were rife as his two main opponents decided to run – the indictment was only a confirmation. This news bolstered attacks by State Rep. James White of Hillister and rancher and farmer Carey Counsil of Brenham. Miller has dissociated himself from Smith, but is no longer able to answer questions about the “rumors”. The rumors were true and the incumbent has a short window of time between now and the primary election to try to clear things up.

The raid on Cuellar’s home came out of nowhere, but came at the start of a primary race against two candidates, including Jessica Cisneros, who came within 3.5 percentage points of beating him in the 2020 primary The FBI didn’t reveal what they were doing, other than to say the searches were court-ordered. While Cuellar said he would cooperate, he is now in a more complicated re-election race than he was a few weeks ago.

If they survive this first round, the three incumbents will face new opponents in the November general election. Five Democrats and one Libertarian are running for attorney general; two Democrats are running for Agriculture Commissioner. All of these people are probably hoping that Paxton and Miller will be on the ballot; it’s easier to run against an injured incumbent than against a fresh face, especially for a Texas Democrat trying to run for statewide office.

In the cases of Paxton and Miller, these challengers were already on the scent of public servant ethics. It’s a tough new situation for Cuellar, and one that’s uncertain until the FBI or the courts — or Cuellar himself — outlines what the raid was all about.

Their legal issues may come to nothing. But on the political level, the ethical questions pending at the start of an election feed opponents and detractors.

The timing couldn’t be worse.