Analysis of the by-elections that have just ended
By reason Wafawarova | Let’s do the analysis for the 28 parliamentary (House of Assembly) seats contested in the by-election.
Allow me first of all to congratulate all the winners and to implore them to carry out their duties with fidelity, loyalty, sincerity, patriotism, competence and wholeheartedly, knowing full well that beyond victory in elections, it is a duty to serve the country and the people of Zimbabwe by moving the country forward.
Let me wish those who placed second to best in their political endeavors in the future. Democracy means that we test the wishes of our people by voting and then we all accept and respect the outcome of the wishes of the people, supporting those who are mandated to represent our people.
We therefore had 28 vacant parliamentary seats, the majority of them vacant due to recalls of incumbent MDC T MPs, and others due to incumbents having died or left to take up other positions.
Of the 28 contested seats, 20 previously belonged to MDC T and 7 to Zanu PF, while one belonged to the NPF, a party that spun off from Zanu PF’s internal power struggles of 2017.
CCC, a new splinter party from MDC T, won 19 of 28 seats while Zanu PF won 9, gaining 2 seats from their tally in 2018.
The Zanu PF garnered 76,355 votes in the 9 constituencies it won, and the CCC garnered 24,307 votes in those constituencies it did not win. The difference in votes here is 52,228.
In the 19 constituencies won by the CCC, they tallied 105,492 votes, with Zanu PF following with 51,864 votes. The difference in votes for the 19 constituencies is 53,628, only 1,400 more than the 9 constituencies won by Zanu PF.
There is a difference of 10 consciences in favor of the CCC.
The cumulative vote for CCC is 129,799 and Zanu PF’s is 128,399. The difference is 1,400 and yet Zanu PF only won 9 seats.
The bipartisan vote was 258,198 and CCC won 50.27% of that vote while Zanu PF won 49.72%. There are a few points to note. The CCC is only a few weeks old and they have done extremely well, but that is not surprising given that the by-elections were largely held in traditional opposition strongholds.
Secondly, the figures show that Zanu PF has the capacity to mobilize to win big in its strongholds and also to reduce the margin in the opposition strongholds.
2023 is going to be exciting and I know for a fact that Zanu PF is going to hire some big brains to get around these voting patterns before 2023.
Likewise, I think the CCC will move forward with encouragement after the boost of maintaining or recovering seats lost in unnecessary court battles in the wake of Tsvangirai’s death.