Crescent Point Energy – Quant Vs. Technical Analysis (NYSE: CPG)

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Imaginima

The highest rated stock on Seeking Alpha today is Crescent Point Energy (CPG) with a rating of 4.99 out of a possible 5.00. I’m still old enough to remember one of the former president’s best advice Reagan: Trust, but verify. I like to consider all the possibilities: quantitative, technical and fundamental analysis, because each one has its advantages, its disadvantages and its deadlines.

Right now, this stock has a short-term Barchart Trend Spotter rating of 8% sell, trending further to sell and trading below its 50-day moving average:

Crescent Point Energy GIC

Trend Spotter GIC

You can see that since the Trend Spotter signaled a sell on 6/22, the stock has fallen 8.56%. Another way to look at this price movement is the current against its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages:

Crescent Point Energy GIC

GICs vs Daily Moving Averages

Crescent Point Energy Corp. explores, develops and produces light and medium crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves in Western Canada and the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas properties and related assets are located in the provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba; and the states of North Dakota and Montana. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. 4

Barchart’s opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and therefore may change during the day depending on market fluctuations. The indicator numbers listed below may therefore not correspond to what you see live on the Barchart.com website when reading this report.

Histogram Technical Indicators:

  • 8% technical and increasing sell signals
  • 90.00+ Alpha weighted
  • Gain of 105.33% over the past year
  • Trend Spotter Sell Signal
  • Above only its 200-day moving average
  • 3 new highs and a drop of 8.56% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 44.82%
  • Technical support level at 6.80
  • Recently traded at 6.94 with a 50 day moving average of 7.93

Basic factors:

  • Market cap $3.77 billion
  • PER 7.34
  • Dividend yield 2.88%
  • Revenue is expected to increase by 80.40% this year and decrease by 8.40% next year
  • Revenue is expected to decline 7.80% this year and a further decline of 39.00% next year, but an overall compound gain of 117.20% over the next 5 years

Analysts and Investor Sentiment – I’m not buying stocks because everyone else is buying them, but I realize that if big companies and investors dump a stock, it’s hard to make money against it. -running :

  • Wall Street analysts have 5 strong buy, 6 buy and 2 hold opinions on the stock
  • The CFRA analysts’ Market Scope gives an average price target above 10.00
  • Individual investors following the stock on Motley Fool voted 73 to 4 for the stock to beat the market, with more experienced investors voting 10 to 1 for the same result.
  • 21,490 investors follow the stock on Seeking Alpha

Summary of assessments

Factor Ratings

Quantitative ranking

Sector

Energy

Industry

Oil and gas exploration and production

Ranked Overall

Classified in the sector

1 in 245

Ranked in the industry

1 of 71

Quantitative ratings beat the market »

Dividend grades

My conclusion : It has been great stock picking in the past, but very heavily dependent on the price of oil. Oil prices and the price of this stock recently hit a price resistance point at around 7.17. In my opinion, the quantitative rating and the fundamental price target of 10.00 might be a bit behind the curve. If you have it, keep it but put a tight stop loss. If you are considering buying, closely monitor the price against its 20-day moving average before making a decision. The 20 and 50 day moving averages should guide your decision from here – Trust but verify!

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