FiveThirtyEight Analysis Finds Youngkin “Got a Whopping 468,000 Votes” in Over 70% of Biden’s Constituencies – MUCH more than Youngkin’s overall statewide margin of 63,000 votes

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For some numbers on Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election, see FiveThirtyEight.com, which finds:

  • In ridings where Biden won more than 70% of the bipartisan vote, McAuliffe lost 592,000 votes to Biden, while Youngkin was only 124,000 votes out of Trump’s total.. That means Youngkin won 468,000 votes in these ridings.
  • Note that Terry McAuliffe lost to Glenn Youngkin by just 63,480 votes, which is MUCH less than the 468,000 votes Youngkin garnered in the 70% + Biden precinct. As FiveThirtyEight.com says, “The losing party [in this case the McAuliffe campaign] hesitated the most on his own ground.
  • “… if we look Strongly Republican Virginia ridings – the ones that gave Trump at least 70 percent of their bipartisan votes, which are on the right side of the graph – Youngkin saw a trickle Gain nearly 3000 votes. It’s striking: despite all the media coverage of Trump’s strength in some communities, Youngkin actually outclassed Trump in Virginia’s most pro-Trump precinct in an out-of-year election.. “

Now it is important to point out that Terry McAuliffe received 1.6 million votes in 2021 – roughly 200,000 more votes than the 1.4 million votes Ralph Northam received in his 2017 landslide, an 8.9 point victory over the Republican Ed Gillespie. The problem for McAuliffe is that Youngkin received 1.66 million votes, up almost 500,000 from the 1.18 million votes Gillespie received in 2017. Which was enough for Youngkin to claim a narrow 63,000 vote victory over McAuliffe.

Getting back to FiveThirtyEight’s review, let’s take a look at some attendance figures at the venue, which I spoke about on November 11.

  • In Richmond City, the turnout percentages for many strong Democratic neighborhoods were only 30% or 40%; in the “deep blue” “Laburnum” district of Henrico County, the turnout was only 40.7%; etc. In contrast, in the Richmond area turnout was VERY high (around 70% – presidential level!) In the deep “red” areas.
  • For comparison, in 2017 Northam received 58,047 votes in Richmond City; in 2021, McAuliffe received 61,929 votes in Richmond City (about 6.7% more than Northam). In 2017, Northam was awarded 69,969 in Henrico County; in 2021, McAuliffe received 81,409 votes in Henrico County (about 16% more than Northam). As for Youngkin, he received 15,713 votes in Richmond City, up 28% from Gillespie’s 12,262 votes in Richmond City in 2017; and Youngkin received 55,796 votes in Henrico County, up 28% from Gillespie’s 43,747 votes in Henrico County in 2017. Note that there isn’t really a way to compare individual constituencies between 2017 and 2021, as the early voting rules were almost completely changed – making early voting MUCH easier – when Democrats controlled the General Assembly. in 2020-2021 – AFTER the 2017 elections.
  • In the Hampton Roads area, we observed a similar pattern: high participation in “red” neighborhoods, “meh” (or worse) participation in “blue” neighborhoods. The ‘blue’ areas of Norfolk had a turnout of 20%, 30% or 40% (for example, the overwhelmingly majority McAuliffe neighborhood ‘Chesterfield’ only had a turnout of 32, 3%; McAuliffe’s high-density neighborhood “Titustown” only saw 25.8% turn out). So… the “redder” neighborhoods on Hampton Roads were found to be more than double the “bluest” neighborhoods.
  • For comparison, McAuliffe received 40,324 votes in Norfolk in 2021, up about 2% from Northam’s 39,453 votes in Norfolk in 2017. As for Youngkin, he got 18,888 votes in Norfolk in 2021, up about 40% (!) From Gillespie’s 13,490 votes in Norfolk in 2017. In Newport News, McAuliffe received 32,399 votes in 2021, up about 6.7% from Northam Newport News’ 30,367 votes in 2017. As for Youngkin, he received 21,241 Newport News votes in 2021, up about 33% (!) From Gillespie’s 15,986 Newport News votes in 2017. In Hampton City, McAuliffe received 29,971 votes in 2021, up about 3.7% from Northam’s 28,906 votes in Hampton City in 2017. As for Youngkin, he got 14,651 votes in Hampton City in 2021, up about 33% (!) From Gillespie’s 11,050 votes in Hampton City in 2017. Do you see a pattern here?
  • In Northern Virginia, again, we saw a similar pattern: the “bluer” ridings were found to be MUCH weaker than the “redder areas”, or even the relatively less “blue” ridings. For example, in strongly democratic Alexandria, the “John Adams School” compound was heavily affected at McAuliffe, but only reached a rate of 33.6%, while the “City Hall” compound Was narrowly matched for McAuliffe, but turned out to be 66.6%. rate. In Arlington, turnout was clearly MUCH higher in affluent, predominantly white, single-family neighborhoods in the far north (eg, “Madison” saw only a relatively small margin for McAuliffe and turned out to be at 71.7%; same with “‘Thrifton”, which turned out to be 71.0%) as in the more diverse and less wealthy southern part of the county (for example, the precinct of “Glebe” was heavily affected in McAuliffe but only reached 47.5%.) And in Prince William County some of the low voter turnout ridings were in the “bluer” parts of the county (eg, “Grayson “At only 32.5%,” Porter “at only 34.3%) while” redder “ridings were found to have much higher rates (eg,” Heritage Hunt “at 72.9%,” Alvey “at 76.1%).
  • For comparison, McAuliffe received 73,013 votes in Arlington County in 2021, up about 7% from Northam’s 68,093 votes in Arlington County in 2017. Youngkin, meanwhile, got 21,548 Arlington County votes in 2021, up about 32% (!) From Gillespie’s Arlington County’s 16,268 votes in 2017. And in Alexandria, McAuliffe got 43,866 votes in 2021, up about 7% from Northam’s 40,896 votes in Alexandria in 2017. As for Youngkin, he got 14,013 Alexandria votes in 2021, up 29% (!) From Gillespie’s 10,822 Alexandria votes in 2017.. In the huge “blue” Prince William County, McAuliffe received 87,352 votes in 2021, up 17% from Northam’s 74,932 votes in Prince William County in 2017. Buuuuut…Youngkin got 64,658 votes in Prince William County in 2021, an increase of 39% (!) Of Gillespie’s 46,454 votes in Prince William County in 2017. In Loudoun County, also huge / “blue,” McAuliffe received 89,390 votes in 2021, a sharp 28% increase from the 69,778 votes in Loudoun County of Northam in 2017. Buuuut…Youngkin got 71,467 votes in Loudoun County in 2021, up 54% (!!) from Gillespie’s 46,396 votes in Loudoun County in 2017. And in huge Fairfax County, McAuliffe got 286,316 votes in 2021, up 12% from Northam’s 255,200 votes in Fairfax County in 2017. Not bad, except that Youngkin received 152,100 votes from Fairfax County in 2021, up about 30% (!) From Gillespie’s 117,141 votes from Fairfax County in 2017. Again, feel a pattern here?

At the end of the line : For a variety of reasons (including exploiting and stoking anger, grievances; the fact that Virginia always tends to go against a new president’s party in the next year’s gubernatorial race; spend a ton of money to shape Youngkin’s image; etc.) for a variety of reasons, including President Biden’s relatively low approval ratings, the lack of a real equivalent to the powerful, albeit dishonest variant, and disgusting of Youngkin’s “southern strategy”, the fact that Republicans have a massive media “echo chamber” certainly isn’t matched by anything comparable on the Democratic side, and certainly not by the false equivalence / “on both sides” (“mainstream media”), resulting in McAuliffe’s relatively narrow loss (of just 1.9 points) in a state Joe Biden had just won the previous year by 10 points, and that Ralph Northam had won in 2017 by 9 points.


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