Redistribution could oust half of incumbents in Michigan, according to analysis

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This is a significant change: Republicans have been in the majority in the legislature for years, even though they sometimes get fewer overall votes than Democrats in some elections.

Already lawmakers have said they will relocate due to the redistribution, including Dingell and fellow United States Democratic Representative Holly’s Elissa Slotkin – even though members of the United States House are not required to live. in their districts.

However, state lawmakers are required to do so and Bayer has said she may move to an open neighborhood just northwest of her home in Beverly Hills in Oakland County rather than confront her co-workers. Democrats Bullock and McMorrow.

“Part of our primary focus has to be – and I can’t decide if it’s # 1 or # 2 – but making sure we get enough seats in Michigan, overthrow the Senate,” he said. Bayer said. “So none of us want to run against each other.”

Bullock, who lives in Detroit, northwest of Highland Park, did not respond to a request for comment from Bridge.

McMorrow, who lives 10 miles north of him in Royal Oak, said she is not moving and is running for re-election. She told Bridge that she and Bullock would have “a coffee or a beer next week and talk about it.”

McMorrow said the new cards, despite the cardholder consolidation, are good news for Democrats.

“It’s our card to lose, frankly, because I’m very confident that when we’re on level ground we can run and win,” said McMorrow.

Open places

A big roster change in Lansing could create challenges, said Meghan Reckling, a GOP strategist who is also chair of the Livingston County Republican Party.

In a city already plagued by traffic jams, next year’s legislature may need to allocate billions of dollars to infrastructure through COVID-19 relief funds or consider toughening election laws.

“When we have such a big turnover and you have a lot of legislators in both caucuses who are unfamiliar with the legislative process, it puts a lot of power in the hands of the staff and people who have been in Lansing for a lot longer. long than the lawmakers themselves, ”Reckling said.

Bernie Porn, a longtime Michigan pollster who worked with Democrats in the constituency redistribution cycles of the 1980s and 1990s, told Bridge new people could mean candidates have to work harder to get votes .

Porn said eliminating partisanship was one of the reasons voters approved the 2018 constitutional amendment that created the independent commission.

“The only way to get around (partisanship) is to have so many competitive ridings where candidates have to try to appeal to both their own party and independent voters to win,” Porn said.

Regardless of the holder or new faces, all of the cards on offer are already creating conversations among lawmakers regarding fundraising.

It is clear that the next election cycle could be one of the costliest in the state. The primaries, Reckling said, are the ones to watch closely.

“Under almost every card, that majority is really going to be on the line,” Reckling said.

“So you’re going to see the two caucuses fighting to try to get majority control of Michigan House… You have a lot of sitting members who are fundraising and they’re going to spend a lot of money getting out of it. . “

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